Arthur Fery vs Elias Ymer prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Elias Ymer 0 - Arthur Fery 0. Arthur Fery is favored with a 59.3% win probability.
Elias Ymer
1486
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Arthur Fery
1513
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Elias YmerArthur Fery
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Arthur Fery
Elias Ymer
Arthur Fery leads by 26 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Arthur Fery SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
Elias Ymer SPW
58.3%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fery has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (26-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fery has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fery 59.3%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →