Arthur Fils vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 67.1% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Arthur Fils
1684
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoArthur Fils
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Arthur Fils
Andrea Pellegrino
Arthur Fils leads by 163 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.3%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Fils ML
-1100
Model: 67%
Edge: -24.6%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+800
Model: 33%
Edge: +21.8%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +800 · +21.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils holds a commanding 163-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Arthur Fils at 67%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 67.1%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →