Arthur Fils vs Matteo Berrettini prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matteo Berrettini 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 59.1% win probability.
Matteo Berrettini
1583
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Arthur Fils
1613
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Matteo BerrettiniArthur Fils
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Arthur Fils
Matteo Berrettini
Arthur Fils leads by 30 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
Matteo Berrettini SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Fils ML
-219
Model: 59%
Edge: -9.6%
Matteo Berrettini ML
+192
Model: 41%
Edge: +6.7%
Model Projection
Matteo Berrettini ML +192 · +6.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (30-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Matteo Berrettini has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 59.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →