Arthur Fils vs Raphael Collignon prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 69.8% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1533
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Arthur Fils
1613
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonArthur Fils
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Arthur Fils
Raphael Collignon
Arthur Fils leads by 80 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
66.6%
Above tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a significant serve advantage (+6.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Fils ML
-141
Model: 70%
Edge: +11.3%
Raphael Collignon ML
+126
Model: 30%
Edge: -14.0%
Model Projection
Arthur Fils ML -141 · +11.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils has a moderate 80-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Arthur Fils at 70%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 69.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →