Arthur Gea vs Mika Petkovic prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mika Petkovic 0 - Arthur Gea 0. Arthur Gea is favored with a 56.3% win probability.
Mika Petkovic
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Arthur Gea
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mika PetkovicArthur Gea
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Arthur Gea
Mika Petkovic
Arthur Gea leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Arthur Gea SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Mika Petkovic SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Gea ML
-250
Model: 56%
Edge: -15.1%
Mika Petkovic ML
+204
Model: 44%
Edge: +10.8%
Model Projection
Mika Petkovic ML +204 · +10.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Gea has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Gea 56.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →