Arthur Gea vs Raul Brancaccio prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raul Brancaccio 0 - Arthur Gea 0. Arthur Gea is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Raul Brancaccio
1568
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Arthur Gea
1547
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Raul BrancaccioArthur Gea
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Pick Results
Raul Brancaccio +2.5 games +175spreadLOSS-0.50u
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Arthur Gea
Raul Brancaccio
Raul Brancaccio leads by 20 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Arthur Gea SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
Raul Brancaccio SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Gea ML
-349
Model: 51%
Edge: -26.3%
Raul Brancaccio ML
+311
Model: 49%
Edge: +24.2%
Model Projection
Raul Brancaccio ML +311 · +24.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (20-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Arthur Gea has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Gea 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →