August Holmgren vs Liam Broady prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Liam Broady 0 - August Holmgren 0. August Holmgren is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Liam Broady
1610
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
August Holmgren
1522
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Liam BroadyAugust Holmgren
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
August Holmgren
Liam Broady
Liam Broady leads by 87 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
August Holmgren SPW
63.3%
Below tour avg
Liam Broady SPW
62.2%
Below tour avg
● August Holmgren has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
August Holmgren ML
-114
Model: 51%
Edge: -1.9%
Liam Broady ML
-102
Model: 49%
Edge: -1.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Liam Broady has a moderate 87-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- August Holmgren has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
August Holmgren 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →