Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Diane Parry 0 - Beatriz Haddad Maia 0. Beatriz Haddad Maia is favored with a 62.5% win probability.
Diane Parry
1613
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Beatriz Haddad Maia
1749
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Diane ParryBeatriz Haddad Maia
Hard
Surface
Paris
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Paris
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Diane Parry
Beatriz Haddad Maia leads by 136 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Beatriz Haddad Maia SPW
60.2%
Above tour avg
Diane Parry SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
● Beatriz Haddad Maia has a significant serve advantage (+3.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML
-135
Model: 62%
Edge: +5.0%
Diane Parry ML
+105
Model: 38%
Edge: -11.3%
Model Projection
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML -135 · +5.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Beatriz Haddad Maia holds a commanding 136-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Beatriz Haddad Maia has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Beatriz Haddad Maia 62.5%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →