Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francesca Jones prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francesca Jones 0 - Beatriz Haddad Maia 0. Beatriz Haddad Maia is favored with a 50.0% win probability.
Francesca Jones
1514
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Beatriz Haddad Maia
1704
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Francesca JonesBeatriz Haddad Maia
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Francesca Jones
Beatriz Haddad Maia leads by 190 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Beatriz Haddad Maia SPW
54.4%
Below tour avg
Francesca Jones SPW
55.8%
Below tour avg
● Francesca Jones has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML
+134
Model: 50%
Edge: +7.3%
Francesca Jones ML
-151
Model: 50%
Edge: -10.2%
Model Projection
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML +134 · +7.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Beatriz Haddad Maia holds a commanding 190-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Francesca Jones has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Beatriz Haddad Maia 50.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →