Borna Gojo vs Henrique Rocha prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henrique Rocha 0 - Borna Gojo 0. Henrique Rocha is favored with a 58.7% win probability.
Henrique Rocha
1597
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Borna Gojo
1318
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Henrique RochaBorna Gojo
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Borna Gojo
Henrique Rocha
Henrique Rocha leads by 279 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Borna Gojo SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
Henrique Rocha SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
● Henrique Rocha has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Borna Gojo ML
+133
Model: 41%
Edge: -1.6%
Henrique Rocha ML
-156
Model: 59%
Edge: -2.2%
Key Matchup Factors
- Henrique Rocha holds a commanding 279-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Henrique Rocha has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henrique Rocha 58.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →