Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agut prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista Agut 0 - Brandon Nakashima 0. Brandon Nakashima is favored with a 69.3% win probability.
Roberto Bautista Agut
1485
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Brandon Nakashima
1556
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista AgutBrandon Nakashima
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.3% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Brandon Nakashima
Roberto Bautista Agut
Brandon Nakashima leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Brandon Nakashima SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
● Brandon Nakashima has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Brandon Nakashima ML
-343
Model: 69%
Edge: -8.1%
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
+293
Model: 31%
Edge: +5.3%
Model Projection
Roberto Bautista Agut ML +293 · +5.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Brandon Nakashima has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Brandon Nakashima has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Brandon Nakashima at 69%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brandon Nakashima 69.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →