Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 - Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0. Aleksandar Kovacevic is favored with a 54.9% win probability.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
1406
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandar KovacevicCamilo Ugo Carabelli
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,860 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads by 91 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.9%
Below tour avg
Aleksandar Kovacevic SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Aleksandar Kovacevic has a slight serve edge (+2.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
-179
Model: 45%
Edge: -19.1%
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML
+164
Model: 55%
Edge: +17.0%
Model Projection
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML +164 · +17.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli has a moderate 91-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Aleksandar Kovacevic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aleksandar Kovacevic 54.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →