Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Kamil Majchrzak prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kamil Majchrzak 0 - Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0. Kamil Majchrzak is favored with a 60.1% win probability.
Kamil Majchrzak
1522
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Kamil MajchrzakCamilo Ugo Carabelli
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Kamil Majchrzak
Kamil Majchrzak leads by 24 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.5%
Below tour avg
Kamil Majchrzak SPW
63.5%
Below tour avg
● Kamil Majchrzak has a significant serve advantage (+4.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
-205
Model: 40%
Edge: -27.3%
Kamil Majchrzak ML
+176
Model: 60%
Edge: +23.8%
Model Projection
Kamil Majchrzak ML +176 · +23.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (24-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Kamil Majchrzak has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kamil Majchrzak 60.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →