Catherine McNally vs Emiliana Arango prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emiliana Arango 0 - Catherine McNally 0. Catherine McNally is favored with a 54.0% win probability.
Emiliana Arango
1511
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Catherine McNally
1578
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Emiliana ArangoCatherine McNally
Grass
Surface
Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Catherine McNally
Emiliana Arango
Catherine McNally leads by 68 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Catherine McNally SPW
56.0%
Below tour avg
Emiliana Arango SPW
54.5%
Below tour avg
● Catherine McNally has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Catherine McNally ML
-350
Model: 54%
Edge: -23.8%
Emiliana Arango ML
+275
Model: 46%
Edge: +19.3%
Model Projection
Emiliana Arango ML +275 · +19.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Catherine McNally has a moderate 68-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Catherine McNally has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Catherine McNally 54.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →