Chris Rodesch vs Florent Bax prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Florent Bax 0 - Chris Rodesch 0. Chris Rodesch is favored with a 52.4% win probability.
Florent Bax
1553
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Chris Rodesch
1444
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Florent BaxChris Rodesch
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Chris Rodesch
Florent Bax
Florent Bax leads by 108 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Chris Rodesch SPW
65.6%
Above tour avg
Florent Bax SPW
67.0%
Above tour avg
● Florent Bax has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Chris Rodesch ML
-1049
Model: 52%
Edge: -38.9%
Florent Bax ML
+642
Model: 48%
Edge: +34.2%
Model Projection
Florent Bax ML +642 · +34.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Florent Bax holds a commanding 108-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Florent Bax has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Chris Rodesch 52.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →