Colton Smith vs Borna Gojo prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Borna Gojo 0 - Colton Smith 0. Colton Smith is favored with a 52.4% win probability.
Borna Gojo
1413
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Colton Smith
1440
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Borna GojoColton Smith
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Colton Smith
Borna Gojo
Colton Smith leads by 27 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Colton Smith SPW
64.2%
Above tour avg
Borna Gojo SPW
62.6%
Below tour avg
● Colton Smith has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Colton Smith ML
+108
Model: 52%
Edge: +4.3%
Borna Gojo ML
-128
Model: 48%
Edge: -8.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (27-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Colton Smith has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Colton Smith 52.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →