Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 0 - Corentin Moutet 0. Corentin Moutet is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1634
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Corentin Moutet
1617
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaCorentin Moutet
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Corentin Moutet
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Corentin Moutet SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Corentin Moutet ML
+149
Model: 51%
Edge: +11.3%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML
-172
Model: 49%
Edge: -14.7%
Model Projection
Corentin Moutet ML +149 · +11.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Corentin Moutet has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Corentin Moutet 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →