Cristian Garin vs Henri Squire prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henri Squire 0 - Cristian Garin 0. Cristian Garin is favored with a 53.9% win probability.
Henri Squire
1701
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Cristian Garin
1482
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Henri SquireCristian Garin
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,272 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Cristian Garin
Henri Squire
Henri Squire leads by 220 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Cristian Garin SPW
63.2%
Below tour avg
Henri Squire SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Cristian Garin has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Cristian Garin ML
-398
Model: 54%
Edge: -26.0%
Henri Squire ML
+309
Model: 46%
Edge: +21.7%
Model Projection
Henri Squire ML +309 · +21.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Henri Squire holds a commanding 220-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Cristian Garin has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cristian Garin 53.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →