Dan Added vs Gustavo Heide prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gustavo Heide 0 - Dan Added 0. Gustavo Heide is favored with a 55.9% win probability.
Gustavo Heide
1427
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Dan Added
1472
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Gustavo HeideDan Added
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,463 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Dan Added
Gustavo Heide
Dan Added leads by 45 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Dan Added SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
Gustavo Heide SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Dan Added ML
+598
Model: 44%
Edge: +29.8%
Gustavo Heide ML
-956
Model: 56%
Edge: -34.7%
Model Projection
Dan Added ML +598 · +29.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Dan Added has a moderate 45-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Gustavo Heide has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gustavo Heide 55.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →