Dan Added vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Dan Added 0. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1482
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Dan Added
1472
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizDan Added
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Dan Added
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Pablo Llamas Ruiz leads by 10 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Dan Added SPW
65.1%
Above tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Dan Added ML
+307
Model: 49%
Edge: +24.8%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
-384
Model: 51%
Edge: -28.7%
Model Projection
Dan Added ML +307 · +24.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (10-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Dan Added has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Llamas Ruiz 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →