Daniel Evans vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 0 - Daniel Evans 0. Daniel Evans is favored with a 52.6% win probability.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
1603
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Daniel Evans
1570
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Juan Carlos Prado AngeloDaniel Evans
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Daniel Evans
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo leads by 33 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Daniel Evans SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniel Evans ML
-273
Model: 53%
Edge: -20.6%
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ML
+247
Model: 47%
Edge: +18.6%
Model Projection
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ML +247 · +18.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (33-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Daniel Evans has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniel Evans 52.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →