Daniel Merida vs Daniil Medvedev prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniil Medvedev 0 - Daniel Merida 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 60.3% win probability.
Daniil Medvedev
1703
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Daniel Merida
1500
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniil MedvedevDaniel Merida
Grass
Surface
Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Daniel Merida
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev leads by 203 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Daniel Merida SPW
60.3%
Above tour avg
Daniil Medvedev SPW
63.0%
Above tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 203-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 60.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →