Daniil Medvedev vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 55.4% win probability.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1694
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1703
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniel Merida AguilarDaniil Medvedev
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Daniil Medvedev leads by 8 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Daniel Merida Aguilar SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-3411
Model: 55%
Edge: -41.7%
Daniel Merida Aguilar ML
+1679
Model: 45%
Edge: +39.0%
Model Projection
Daniel Merida Aguilar ML +1679 · +39.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (8-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Daniel Merida Aguilar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 55.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →