Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marin Cilic 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 66.2% win probability.
Marin Cilic
1578
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1703
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Marin CilicDaniil Medvedev
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Daniil Medvedev
Marin Cilic
Daniil Medvedev leads by 125 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
69.2%
Above tour avg
Marin Cilic SPW
66.2%
Above tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a significant serve advantage (+3.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-280
Model: 66%
Edge: -7.4%
Marin Cilic ML
+242
Model: 34%
Edge: +4.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 125-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Daniil Medvedev at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 66.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →