Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Landaluce prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Martin Landaluce 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 71.8% win probability.
Martin Landaluce
1392
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1723
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Martin LandaluceDaniil Medvedev
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (2,240 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Daniil Medvedev
Martin Landaluce
Daniil Medvedev leads by 332 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
Martin Landaluce SPW
57.9%
Below tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a significant serve advantage (+5.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-284
Model: 72%
Edge: -2.2%
Martin Landaluce ML
+251
Model: 28%
Edge: -0.3%
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 332-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Daniil Medvedev at 72%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 71.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →