Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 66.2% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1723
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizDaniil Medvedev
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Daniil Medvedev
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Daniil Medvedev leads by 238 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-224
Model: 66%
Edge: -2.9%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
+195
Model: 34%
Edge: -0.1%
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 238-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Daniil Medvedev at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 66.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →