Daniil Medvedev vs Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 59.9% win probability.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1723
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Thiago Agustin TiranteDaniil Medvedev
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Daniil Medvedev
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Daniil Medvedev leads by 219 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
60.8%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-156
Model: 60%
Edge: -1.0%
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
+138
Model: 40%
Edge: -1.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 219-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 59.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →