Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thijs Boogaard 0 - Daniil Medvedev 0. Daniil Medvedev is favored with a 73.8% win probability.
Thijs Boogaard
1478
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Daniil Medvedev
1846
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Thijs BoogaardDaniil Medvedev
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.4% (5,057 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Daniil Medvedev
Thijs Boogaard
Daniil Medvedev leads by 368 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Daniil Medvedev SPW
67.4%
Above tour avg
Thijs Boogaard SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
● Daniil Medvedev has a significant serve advantage (+6.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniil Medvedev ML
-1046
Model: 74%
Edge: -17.5%
Thijs Boogaard ML
+693
Model: 26%
Edge: +13.6%
Model Projection
Thijs Boogaard ML +693 · +13.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniil Medvedev holds a commanding 368-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Daniil Medvedev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Daniil Medvedev at 74%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniil Medvedev 73.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →