Daria Kasatkina vs Peyton Stearns prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Peyton Stearns 0 - Daria Kasatkina 0. Daria Kasatkina is favored with a 62.8% win probability.
Peyton Stearns
1670
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Daria Kasatkina
1768
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Peyton StearnsDaria Kasatkina
Hard
Surface
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Daria Kasatkina
Peyton Stearns
Daria Kasatkina leads by 98 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Daria Kasatkina SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
Peyton Stearns SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
● Daria Kasatkina has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daria Kasatkina ML
-2144
Model: 63%
Edge: -32.7%
Peyton Stearns ML
+1439
Model: 37%
Edge: +30.7%
Model Projection
Peyton Stearns ML +1439 · +30.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Daria Kasatkina has a moderate 98-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Daria Kasatkina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daria Kasatkina 62.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →