Darja Vidmanova vs Jessica Pegula prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jessica Pegula 0 - Darja Vidmanova 0. Jessica Pegula is favored with a 63.6% win probability.
Jessica Pegula
1787
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Darja Vidmanova
1426
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jessica PegulaDarja Vidmanova
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Darja Vidmanova
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula leads by 361 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Darja Vidmanova SPW
59.0%
Above tour avg
Jessica Pegula SPW
60.7%
Above tour avg
● Jessica Pegula has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Darja Vidmanova ML
+1009
Model: 36%
Edge: +27.4%
Jessica Pegula ML
-1949
Model: 64%
Edge: -31.5%
Model Projection
Darja Vidmanova ML +1009 · +27.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jessica Pegula holds a commanding 361-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jessica Pegula has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jessica Pegula 63.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →