Diane Parry vs Beatriz Haddad Maia prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Beatriz Haddad Maia 0 - Diane Parry 0. Beatriz Haddad Maia is favored with a 61.1% win probability.
Beatriz Haddad Maia
1749
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Diane Parry
1613
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Beatriz Haddad MaiaDiane Parry
Hard
Surface
WTA 125k Paris
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,120 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125k Paris
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Diane Parry
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Beatriz Haddad Maia leads by 136 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Diane Parry SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
Beatriz Haddad Maia SPW
60.2%
Above tour avg
● Beatriz Haddad Maia has a significant serve advantage (+3.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diane Parry ML
+104
Model: 39%
Edge: -10.1%
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML
-126
Model: 61%
Edge: +5.3%
Model Projection
Beatriz Haddad Maia ML -126 · +5.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Beatriz Haddad Maia holds a commanding 136-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Beatriz Haddad Maia has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Beatriz Haddad Maia 61.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →