Diane Parry vs Francesca Jones prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francesca Jones 0 - Diane Parry 0. Diane Parry is favored with a 60.5% win probability.
Francesca Jones
1452
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Diane Parry
1582
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Francesca JonesDiane Parry
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Diane Parry
Francesca Jones
Diane Parry leads by 130 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Diane Parry SPW
60.5%
Above tour avg
Francesca Jones SPW
58.4%
Above tour avg
● Diane Parry has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diane Parry ML
-316
Model: 60%
Edge: -15.4%
Francesca Jones ML
+258
Model: 40%
Edge: +11.5%
Model Projection
Francesca Jones ML +258 · +11.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Diane Parry holds a commanding 130-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Diane Parry has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Diane Parry 60.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →