Diego Dedura vs Frances Tiafoe prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Frances Tiafoe 0 - Diego Dedura 0. Frances Tiafoe is favored with a 52.9% win probability.
Frances Tiafoe
1592
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Diego Dedura
1476
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Frances TiafoeDiego Dedura
Clay
Surface
Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Diego Dedura
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe leads by 115 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Diego Dedura SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
Frances Tiafoe SPW
63.5%
Above tour avg
● Frances Tiafoe has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diego Dedura ML
-299
Model: 47%
Edge: -27.9%
Frances Tiafoe ML
+257
Model: 53%
Edge: +24.9%
Model Projection
Frances Tiafoe ML +257 · +24.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Frances Tiafoe holds a commanding 115-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Frances Tiafoe has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frances Tiafoe 52.9%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →