Diego Dedura vs Francisco Comesana prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francisco Comesana 0 - Diego Dedura 0. Diego Dedura is favored with a 55.3% win probability.
Francisco Comesana
1498
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Diego Dedura
1499
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Francisco ComesanaDiego Dedura
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Milan - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Milan - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Diego Dedura
Francisco Comesana
Diego Dedura leads by 1 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Diego Dedura SPW
65.0%
Above tour avg
Francisco Comesana SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Diego Dedura has a significant serve advantage (+3.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diego Dedura ML
+173
Model: 55%
Edge: +18.6%
Francisco Comesana ML
-214
Model: 45%
Edge: -23.4%
Model Projection
Diego Dedura ML +173 · +18.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (1-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Diego Dedura has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Diego Dedura 55.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →