Diego Dedura vs James Duckworth prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects James Duckworth 0 - Diego Dedura 0. Diego Dedura is favored with a 61.4% win probability.
James Duckworth
1460
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Diego Dedura
1476
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
James DuckworthDiego Dedura
Clay
Surface
Stuttgart
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (4,889 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stuttgart
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Diego Dedura
James Duckworth
Diego Dedura leads by 16 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Diego Dedura SPW
64.6%
Above tour avg
James Duckworth SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
● Diego Dedura has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diego Dedura ML
-288
Model: 61%
Edge: -12.9%
James Duckworth ML
+248
Model: 39%
Edge: +9.9%
Model Projection
James Duckworth ML +248 · +9.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (16-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Diego Dedura has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Diego Dedura 61.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →