Dusan Lajovic vs Chris Rodesch prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Chris Rodesch 0 - Dusan Lajovic 0. Chris Rodesch is favored with a 62.8% win probability.
Chris Rodesch
1444
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Dusan Lajovic
1369
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Chris RodeschDusan Lajovic
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Dusan Lajovic
Chris Rodesch
Chris Rodesch leads by 75 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Dusan Lajovic SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Chris Rodesch SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
● Chris Rodesch has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Dusan Lajovic ML
+195
Model: 37%
Edge: +3.3%
Chris Rodesch ML
-233
Model: 63%
Edge: -7.2%
Key Matchup Factors
- Chris Rodesch has a moderate 75-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Chris Rodesch has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Chris Rodesch 62.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →