Dusan Lajovic vs Vilius Gaubas prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Vilius Gaubas 0 - Dusan Lajovic 0. Vilius Gaubas is favored with a 54.5% win probability.
Vilius Gaubas
1525
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Dusan Lajovic
1369
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Vilius GaubasDusan Lajovic
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Dusan Lajovic
Vilius Gaubas
Vilius Gaubas leads by 156 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Dusan Lajovic SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
Vilius Gaubas SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Vilius Gaubas has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Dusan Lajovic ML
-172
Model: 46%
Edge: -17.7%
Vilius Gaubas ML
+158
Model: 54%
Edge: +15.8%
Model Projection
Vilius Gaubas ML +158 · +15.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Vilius Gaubas holds a commanding 156-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Vilius Gaubas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Vilius Gaubas 54.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →