Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexander Bublik 0 - Edas Butvilas 0. Alexander Bublik is favored with a 68.8% win probability.
Alexander Bublik
1826
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Edas Butvilas
1561
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexander BublikEdas Butvilas
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (2,860 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Edas Butvilas
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik leads by 265 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Edas Butvilas SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
Alexander Bublik SPW
67.0%
Above tour avg
● Alexander Bublik has a significant serve advantage (+3.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Edas Butvilas ML
+240
Model: 31%
Edge: +1.8%
Alexander Bublik ML
-300
Model: 69%
Edge: -6.2%
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Bublik holds a commanding 265-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alexander Bublik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Alexander Bublik at 69%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Bublik 68.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →