Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anastasia Potapova 0 - Ekaterina Alexandrova 0. Ekaterina Alexandrova is favored with a 58.8% win probability.
Anastasia Potapova
1662
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1701
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Anastasia PotapovaEkaterina Alexandrova
Hard
Surface
ecotrans Ladies Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.6% (5,244 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ecotrans Ladies Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Anastasia Potapova
Ekaterina Alexandrova leads by 39 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ekaterina Alexandrova SPW
57.4%
Above tour avg
Anastasia Potapova SPW
53.2%
Below tour avg
● Ekaterina Alexandrova has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML
+106
Model: 59%
Edge: +10.3%
Anastasia Potapova ML
-121
Model: 41%
Edge: -13.6%
Model Projection
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML +106 · +10.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (39-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ekaterina Alexandrova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ekaterina Alexandrova 58.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →