Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Ann Li prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ann Li 0 - Ekaterina Alexandrova 0. Ekaterina Alexandrova is favored with a 62.5% win probability.
Ann Li
1575
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1701
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ann LiEkaterina Alexandrova
Hard
Surface
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ann Li
Ekaterina Alexandrova leads by 125 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ekaterina Alexandrova SPW
57.6%
Above tour avg
Ann Li SPW
55.3%
Below tour avg
● Ekaterina Alexandrova has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML
-294
Model: 62%
Edge: -12.2%
Ann Li ML
+265
Model: 38%
Edge: +10.1%
Model Projection
Ann Li ML +265 · +10.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Ekaterina Alexandrova holds a commanding 125-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ekaterina Alexandrova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ekaterina Alexandrova 62.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →