Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Ann Li prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ann Li 0 - Ekaterina Alexandrova 0. Ekaterina Alexandrova is favored with a 60.4% win probability.
Ann Li
1646
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1681
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ann LiEkaterina Alexandrova
Hard
Surface
WTA Bad Homburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Bad Homburg Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ann Li
Ekaterina Alexandrova leads by 35 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ekaterina Alexandrova SPW
59.1%
Above tour avg
Ann Li SPW
55.5%
Below tour avg
● Ekaterina Alexandrova has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML
-142
Model: 60%
Edge: +1.7%
Ann Li ML
+126
Model: 40%
Edge: -4.6%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (35-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ekaterina Alexandrova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ekaterina Alexandrova 60.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →