Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Fiona Ferro prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fiona Ferro 0 - Ekaterine Gorgodze 0. Ekaterine Gorgodze is favored with a 52.4% win probability.
Fiona Ferro
1498
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Ekaterine Gorgodze
1489
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Fiona FerroEkaterine Gorgodze
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Brescia - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.6% (5,703 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Brescia - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Fiona Ferro
Fiona Ferro leads by 9 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Ekaterine Gorgodze SPW
54.1%
Below tour avg
Fiona Ferro SPW
51.2%
Below tour avg
● Ekaterine Gorgodze has a slight serve edge (+3.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ekaterine Gorgodze ML
+397
Model: 52%
Edge: +32.3%
Fiona Ferro ML
-531
Model: 48%
Edge: -36.5%
Model Projection
Ekaterine Gorgodze ML +397 · +32.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (9-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ekaterine Gorgodze has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ekaterine Gorgodze 52.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →