Elena Rybakina vs Caty McNally prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Caty McNally 0 - Elena Rybakina 0. Elena Rybakina is favored with a 68.9% win probability.
Caty McNally
1578
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Elena Rybakina
1847
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Caty McNallyElena Rybakina
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.4% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Elena Rybakina
Caty McNally
Elena Rybakina leads by 269 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Elena Rybakina SPW
62.4%
Above tour avg
Caty McNally SPW
56.6%
Above tour avg
● Elena Rybakina has a significant serve advantage (+5.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Elena Rybakina ML
-447
Model: 69%
Edge: -12.8%
Caty McNally ML
+372
Model: 31%
Edge: +9.9%
Model Projection
Caty McNally ML +372 · +9.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Elena Rybakina holds a commanding 269-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Elena Rybakina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Elena Rybakina at 69%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Elena Rybakina 68.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →