Elias Ymer vs Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nikoloz Basilashvili 0 - Elias Ymer 0. Nikoloz Basilashvili is favored with a 53.7% win probability.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1478
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Elias Ymer
1486
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Nikoloz BasilashviliElias Ymer
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Elias Ymer
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Elias Ymer leads by 8 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Elias Ymer SPW
63.3%
Below tour avg
Nikoloz Basilashvili SPW
64.2%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Elias Ymer ML
+140
Model: 46%
Edge: +4.6%
Nikoloz Basilashvili ML
-165
Model: 54%
Edge: -8.6%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (8-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Nikoloz Basilashvili has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nikoloz Basilashvili 53.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →