Emerson Jones vs Anastasia Gasanova prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anastasia Gasanova 0 - Emerson Jones 0. Emerson Jones is favored with a 59.0% win probability.
Anastasia Gasanova
1494
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Emerson Jones
1532
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Anastasia GasanovaEmerson Jones
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Emerson Jones
Anastasia Gasanova
Emerson Jones leads by 38 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Emerson Jones SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
Anastasia Gasanova SPW
53.5%
Below tour avg
● Emerson Jones has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Emerson Jones ML
-271
Model: 59%
Edge: -14.0%
Anastasia Gasanova ML
+224
Model: 41%
Edge: +10.1%
Model Projection
Anastasia Gasanova ML +224 · +10.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (38-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Emerson Jones has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emerson Jones 59.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →