Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anna Bondar 0 - Emiliana Arango 0. Emiliana Arango is favored with a 62.2% win probability.
Anna Bondar
1424
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Emiliana Arango
1471
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Anna BondarEmiliana Arango
Hard
Surface
Rabat
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Rabat
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Emiliana Arango
Anna Bondar
Emiliana Arango leads by 47 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Emiliana Arango SPW
58.1%
Above tour avg
Anna Bondar SPW
54.3%
Below tour avg
● Emiliana Arango has a significant serve advantage (+3.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Emiliana Arango ML
-357
Model: 62%
Edge: -15.9%
Anna Bondar ML
+303
Model: 38%
Edge: +13.0%
Model Projection
Anna Bondar ML +303 · +13.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Emiliana Arango has a moderate 47-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Emiliana Arango has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emiliana Arango 62.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →