Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lola Radivojevic 0 - Emma Navarro 0. Emma Navarro is favored with a 59.0% win probability.
Lola Radivojevic
1446
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Emma Navarro
1790
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Lola RadivojevicEmma Navarro
Hard
Surface
Paris
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Paris
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Emma Navarro
Lola Radivojevic
Emma Navarro leads by 344 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Emma Navarro SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Lola Radivojevic SPW
55.9%
Below tour avg
● Emma Navarro has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Emma Navarro ML
-285
Model: 59%
Edge: -15.0%
Lola Radivojevic ML
+210
Model: 41%
Edge: +8.8%
Model Projection
Lola Radivojevic ML +210 · +8.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Emma Navarro holds a commanding 344-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Emma Navarro has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emma Navarro 59.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →