Emma Raducanu vs Diane Parry prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Diane Parry 0 - Emma Raducanu 0. Emma Raducanu is favored with a 59.9% win probability.
Diane Parry
1613
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Emma Raducanu
1714
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Diane ParryEmma Raducanu
Hard
Surface
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,463 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Internationaux de Strasbourg
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Emma Raducanu
Diane Parry
Emma Raducanu leads by 101 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Emma Raducanu SPW
59.2%
Above tour avg
Diane Parry SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
● Emma Raducanu has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Emma Raducanu ML
-111
Model: 60%
Edge: +7.3%
Diane Parry ML
-101
Model: 40%
Edge: -10.2%
Model Projection
Emma Raducanu ML -111 · +7.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Emma Raducanu holds a commanding 101-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Emma Raducanu has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emma Raducanu 59.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →