Fabian Marozsan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 - Fabian Marozsan 0. Fabian Marozsan is favored with a 58.1% win probability.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Fabian Marozsan
1570
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Thiago Agustin TiranteFabian Marozsan
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Fabian Marozsan
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Fabian Marozsan leads by 66 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Fabian Marozsan SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
65.5%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Fabian Marozsan ML
-222
Model: 58%
Edge: -10.9%
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
+194
Model: 42%
Edge: +7.9%
Model Projection
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML +194 · +7.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Fabian Marozsan has a moderate 66-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Fabian Marozsan has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fabian Marozsan 58.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →