Federico Cinà vs Hugo Gaston prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hugo Gaston 0 - Federico Cinà 0. Federico Cinà is favored with a 57.6% win probability.
Hugo Gaston
1418
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Federico Cinà
1470
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Hugo GastonFederico Cinà
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Federico Cinà
Hugo Gaston
Federico Cinà leads by 52 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Federico Cinà SPW
65.1%
Above tour avg
Hugo Gaston SPW
62.5%
Below tour avg
● Federico Cinà has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Federico Cinà ML
-133
Model: 58%
Edge: +0.6%
Hugo Gaston ML
+122
Model: 42%
Edge: -2.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Federico Cinà has a moderate 52-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Federico Cinà has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Federico Cinà 57.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →